Don’t believe what you’ve heard, the 2017 Election result was completely decisive.
And the overwhelming winner was … the Nein Danke Party
- Labour amassed a 10% vote rise on the Austerity - No Thanks ticket.
- The Tories amassed a larger vote (and now an arrangement with the DUP) on the Anyone But Jezza platform.
- In Scotland, the Tories gained 12 seats via the No More Referenda gambit.
- In Northern Ireland, politics reached the end of a 45 year trajectory, with the No compromise parties now occupying 17 of the 18 seats.
A subtle realignment is occurring ?
- Due in part to capturing much of the UKIP vote, the Tory support has become less educated and lower down the social scale, whilst Labour’s electorate has become more metropolitan and higher educated.
- As I predicted, in the North East the Tories gained big increases in votes and won Middlesbrough SE.
- Ditto in parts of the Midlands e.g. they won in former strongholds in Mansfield, NE Derby, and also reaffirmed the Copeland by-election result.
- However, Trump’s win suggests that losing touch with its industrial base doesn’t end well for the Left.
A famous victory ?
- Despite Len McCluskey’s contention that this was a Labour victory, after seven years of austerity, the Party has only gained 4 more seats than the 2010 defeat.
- The Conservatives will remain in charge, short of losing a Confidence Motion.
- Labour’s 1970s’ experience suggests this could take several years and it looks like a Brexit vote would be the issue to do it.
- Without the DUP, May is actually three votes short (with a liberal unionist still in play).
- The result has confirmed my previous contention that a leftist alliance does not have enough votes to win, unless it can (like France’s Macron) attract centrist votes.
The Nays have it
Another sort of nay sayer now holds sway
- May remains in power because there is no conceivable Tory opponent to her yet.
- The Brexiteers ironically see her as the best bet for their version of Brexit.
- So, whilst the Brexit process is vaguely on track, the PM will rattle on.
- As another female PM almost once put it. For the moment, There Is No Alternative.